The Impacts of Ukranian Invasion on China Part III - CCP and the Inherent Weaknesses
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| Xi Jinping Addressing the Army (Courtesy CNN) |
However, the activities going on inside China are certainly worth noting as to why China, even though it is not collapsing like the Soviet Union, stands at a precipice of its own making. The inherent structural weaknesses created by decades of bad policy making behind the facade of economic progress are deep rooted today. This implies that China is not necessarily in the best of positions to carry out its plans militarily in particular.
The problem of Little Emperors is well known. Thanks to the one child policy spanning decades, there are millions of people, particularly men today, who are their parents' sole child. The spoilt nature of these kids is becoming a big headache for China's society at large, and the military in particular. What it has done is to literally kill the appetite of society at large for any major military conflict. This issue seems trivial, but to the Chinese Communist Party that fears popular senitment against itself, this is a very big problem. An example of this was seen when China was found hiding the number of casualties arising from the Galwan standoff with India from 2020. The crackdown on information spread has been brutal; but it only goes to show just what is feared. Also, it has caused problems of unsuitable people being available for the military despite mandatory conscription. The men, it seems, are not manly enough, leading to hilarious consequences. Any amount of weaponry and sophistication is necessary and advantageous, but a weapon is as good or bad as its wielder. This is not a problem going away any time soon; rather, with the collapse in demography occurring earlier than anticipated, this headache is becoming bigger. This was also seen in foreign peacekeeping operations in Africa, where, much to their chagrin, it was the Indian soldiers who had to come to their rescue. It is for this reason also that it is the irregulars, also known as the 'little blue men' that do all the foreign water intrusions in the South China Sea, and not the regular navy or coast guard - because they want to ensure that the weaknesses of their regular forces do not get exposed despite the fanciest of toys at their possession.
The power struggle going on within China is well reported on now. Xi Jinping is going all out to ensure his supremacy at all costs, leaving no stone unturned to outmaneuver the Jiang Zemin faction. However, this has led to multiple challenges. Xi's efforts in this regard to control the military are wholesome for sure. However, this has been a problem that is costing them dearly. Professionalism is certainly the biggest casualty of their armed forces. Unlike the Russian armed forces who are somewhat renowned and even feared in the world for their skill, precision and prowess, one has hardly come across a situation where the Chinese have made a mark for themselves despite all the big Wolf Warrior Diplomacy posturing that has taken place.
Of course, the Chinese well understand that the military strength was no substitute for the rot that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, the problems are now coming to hit China as well. Even as the world continues to depend on China, its inability to have any domestic consumption for its products like the Soviet Union means that it is too vulnerable to any kind of economic blockade and sanction regimes, which will put the economy into an out of control spiral for the Communist Party to address. While China did learn from Russia the importance of manufacturing and even rejected the World Bank IMF consensus of becoming a service economy unlike post Soviet Russia, the issues of a lack of domestic market today are coming home to roost. As it stands, inequality is certainly much more than desirable, pushing Xi Jinping to pursue common prosperity which can only mean one thing - preparing to live in isolation like North Korea because there is nothing left of worth. It is pertinent to note that till 1979 North Korea had the second highest per capita income in Asia, second only to Japan, before terrible economic decisions, famines and crippling sanctions caused it to become one of the world's poorest nations. Similarly, the population collapse that started during the Soviet era and went on subsequently is a problem it understands all too well. However, like Russia, it has struggled even in its present form to be able to address the population problem.
While China is tempted to pursue the Russian line, there are inherent weaknesses that still prohibit from pursuing it. Much like the Soviet example of Afghanistan, it does not want to create a situation where it ends up biting on more than it can chew. It also knows how just like Afghanistan there are people waiting to bait it into a trap, even as the cover it would desire is available. Even then, China may take a gamble. But this gamble would be a rather expensive one.
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